PC Magazine
Technologies To Watch
September 4, 2001
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Introduction
"Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic," wrote Arthur C. Clarke in Profiles of the Future: An Inquiry into the Limits of the Possible. True, but whether a new technology is just sleight of hand or something so dazzling it will eventually change the world is not always clear. As we close the first 20 years of personal computing, we examine emerging technologies and try to distinguish the truly significant breakthroughs from the science fiction. Based on extensive research and conversations with leading innovators, we've identified ten technologies that we believe will profoundly impact our lives over the next two decades. It's your future, so stay tuned.
In the next decade, nanotechnology, the science of building molecular devices one atom at a time, will spur a revolution in the production of materials.
Engineers at IBM, Intel, and several U.S. and Japanese research centers are already working at the nanoscale. The secret is to position atoms precisely to create a desired structure. Once we master nanotechnology, we will be able to cram greater intelligence into devices and achieve the necessary computing power to solve the world's most challenging problems. Nanotech could help end pollution, fight starvation through molecular food synthesis, or even reintroduce extinct species through DNA manipulation. - Jamie M. Bsales
Cheaper and less environmentally destructive energy will come from many new sources, but fuel cells-devices that generate voltage from the chemical reaction of renewable sources like oxygen and hydrogen-hold the most promise. DaimlerBenz, Ford, Nissan, and Toyota have already developed cars with hybrid power sources, where fuel cells are combined with fossil fuel power.
The U.S. Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) is also experimenting with hydrogen-powered fuel cells in portable electronic components. "We were able to replace $8,000 in traditional batteries with $250 in hydrogen," says Dr. Bob Nowak, a DARPA program manager. Twenty years out, fuel cells will be used in all types of products, including handhelds, notebooks, and cell phones.
Even more important, fuel cells could become a primary energy source for homes and businesses. - Sebastian Rupley
In 5 to 15 years, holographic storage will help libraries preserve large volumes of multiformat data for future generations and companies working with Internet applications, where storage needs are doubling every 100 days. Since holographic images are multidimensional, digitized information can be layered throughout the whole volume of the hologram-an enormous improvement over today's magnetic and optical discs.
Scientists at IBM's Almaden Research Lab predict that CD-size holographic storage media with 125GB capacity and a 40MB-per-second transfer rate could arrive by 2003. In 10 years, these systems will pack a terabyte of data (1,000 gigabytes), with a 1GB-per-second transfer rate. The Library of Congress's entire archive could fit on a single disk the size of a CD; today, this would take billions of discs. - Sebastian Rupley
By 2010, we'll have one pipe to the home that will carry voice, video, data, interactive games-and even new sets of applications. This requires a new backbone. Photonic-crystal fiber, which carries signals through a hollow air core rather than a glass core, will be at the center of it. This technology can transport trillions of bits per second (versus the billions of bps possible with today's fiber), mainly because the hollow air core allows unimpeded control over the frequencies and direction of the signals.
Companies like Corning, Lucent, and Nortel, along with several universities, are championing photonic-crystal fiber, but the expense of laying fiber throughout metropolitan local loops is an obstacle. Maryland-based CityNet Telecommunications is experimenting with a less expensive alternative to digging up city streets by deploying fiber through sewer systems using remote-controlled robots. - Davis D. Janowski
Data security techniques will have to improve as fast as hackers find ways to access sensitive information. Quantum encryption, in which polarized photon particles function as locks that protect data from unauthorized access, is a favorite among experts. It relies on virtually crack-proof photons (packets of light) with opposite polarizations for their oscillating electrical fields. Unauthorized attempts result in a change of state for the photons-and blocked access. Authorized attempts produce no change of state.
For defeating viruses, scientists at the University of New Mexico and IBM, among others, are turning to artificial immunology, which provides computers with sophisticated immune systems modeled after human biology. Powered by neural networks, the technology detects intrusion and rogue code, automatically allocating resources to neutralize the trespasser. Both could be in use by 2020. - Sean Carroll
Our reading habits will radically change within a decade. Electronic paper will instantly display information on various tabletlike surfaces. Imagine a digital newspaper that constantly changes its content as news breaks.
Xerox and E Ink are farthest along in developing this technology, in which the paper's "ink" is made up of microcapsules filled with white titanium dioxide and black carbon particles. These are suspended in clear fluid and treated to have alternately positive or negative charges. When a negative electric field is applied, via an attached display driver, the white particles move to the fore. Reverse the process and the surface appears dark, forming letters and graphics out of the black carbon. The technology could be built into portable devices in the next five years. - Laarni Almendrala Ragaza
Biotechnology, fueled by advances in genomics and molecular biology, is on course to revolutionize disease control, nutrition, computing devices, and more. In 20 years, pcs will analyze our dna to detect risk factors for developing diseases. Using DNA samples taken from your body, doctors will compare your DNA characteristics (stored in a database) with known DNA risk factors. They will also use gene therapy to replace undesirable genes.
There are countless varied biotech research efforts under way. Researchers in Switzerland, for instance, have spliced daffodil and bacteria genes into rice plants to increase the level of vitamin A and potentially combat malnutrition.
Nanogen is putting DNA to work in its optical storage technology. To pack data densely, this technology uses tiny synthetic DNA molecules to record data that's readable by lasers. This enables millions of molecules to be squeezed into a space that holds only one digital bit today. - Matthew P. Graven
Envision a car that can drive itself or a living machine (the brain of an eel fused with a device) that can move gracefully toward light. Both already exist, but they are relatively primitive compared with future robotics efforts, which will close the gap between machine and human intelligence. In 20 years, it will be commonplace for robots to assist in surgery, space exploration, and even warfare. Indeed, robotics will advance as swiftly as computing processing power has increased. "Our focus is not on replacing people," says Chuck Thorpe, director of Carnegie Mellon University's Robotics Institute, "but on how robots can help us." - Carol A. Mangis
In the next decade, we'll see a full-immersion, 3-D Web that will dramatically change everything from business and commerce to entertainment. By 2020, people will use realistic holographic representations of themselves to attend social gatherings, which will be virtual, not physical. And fantasies, such as singing in front of thousands of adoring fans or flirting with a celebrity, will become "real."
Walk-in consoles will be used to enter virtual environments and will involve haptics (deriving tactile sensations in simulated settings from special gloves, for example), video displays, audio technology, and olfactory sensors. - Jennifer M. DeFeo
Forget Windows XP. Natural-language processing (NLP), along with accurate speech and gesture recognition, will be central to all operating systems by 2015. The goal is for computers to interact with people using natural human interface modalities. Body movement and voice commands will replace database queries.
NLP will link disparate groups on the Web. Imagine a worldwide chat, translated into your native tongue in real time. MIT and Microsoft already have software applications that control the cursor with a user's head movement, motion-controlled videoconferencing, and NLP applications that allow verbal dialog with machines.
"There are infinite ways to express thoughts," says Bill Dolan, manager of Microsoft Research's Natural Language Processing Group. "We want to map that to a finite range of actions a machine might take." - Mary E. Behr