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1
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2
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- In the 2004, presidential election, of those Texans who voted for either
Kerry or Bush,
- 62% voted for Bush and
- 38% for Kerry.
- Of the Massachusetts residents who voted for either Kerry or Bush,
- 37% voted for Bush and
- 63% for Kerry.
- Bill was a Kerry voter. He comes from either Texas or Massachusetts but
I know nothing more about him.
- Is it more likely that he comes from Texas or from Massachusetts?
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3
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- Ooops. I need to tell you that:
- in Texas there were 7.4 million voters for either Kerry or Bush and
- in Massachusetts there were only 2.9 million such voters.
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4
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- Ooops. I need to tell you that in Texas there were 7.4 million voters
for either Kerry or Bush and in Massachusetts there were 2.9 million
such voters.
- Thus, of the Kerry voters from the two states, 61% came from Texas and
only 39% came from Massachusetts.
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5
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- Thus, of the Kerry voters from the two states, 61% came from Texas and
only 39% came from Massachusetts.
- So Bill is more likely a Texan.
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6
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- Do regular folks understand that stuff?
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7
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- by Liette Gidlow
Associate Professor of History, Bowling Green State University
- “The debates made Kennedy look like a winner. His practice of looking at
the camera when answering the questions -- and not at the journalists
who asked them, as Nixon did -- made viewers see him as someone who was
talking directly to them and who gave them straight answers. Kennedy's
performance showed not only that he was a knowledgeable and credible
elected official, but also that he just plain looked better. The often
repeated story -- which is in fact true -- is that polls taken after the
first debate showed that most people who listened to it on the radio
felt that Nixon had won, while most who watched it on television
declared Kennedy the victor.”
- © The Gilder Lehrman Institute of American History, 2004.
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8
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- But in 1960, rural areas (where more Republicans lived) were less likely
to have television than urban areas (where more Democrats lived).
- Couldn’t this predisposition to like one’s own party’s candidate explain
the difference?
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9
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- Do regular folks understand that stuff?
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10
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- Maybe regular folks don’t but The National Institute on Drug Abuse
should.
- From Marijuana: Facts Parents Need to Know, 2005:
- “ Question: Does using marijuana
lead to other drugs?
- Answer: Long-term studies of high school students and their patterns of
drug use show that very few young people use other drugs without first
trying marijuana, alcohol, or tobacco. …”
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11
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- So I will prepare my own manual.
- From A. K. Cline: Statistical Nonsense to Mislead Parents. (Never
actually to be published)
- “ Question: Does using water lead
to other drugs?
- Answer: Long-term studies of high school students and their patterns of
drug use show that absolutely no young people use other drugs without
first trying water. …”
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12
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- That manual has such a gross abuse of statistics that one must wonder if
it was done deliberately.
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13
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- At her middle school’s Parent’s Night, her science teacher described a
project where students drew pictures of the creation of the world.
“Anything was OK,” she said.
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14
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- At her middle school’s Parent’s Night, her science teacher described a
project where students drew pictures of the creation of the world.
“Anything was OK,” she said.
- In her high school biology class, a student asked “Why do humans not
have bones in their outer ears?”.
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15
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- At her middle school’s Parent’s Night, her science teacher described a
project where students drew pictures of the creation of the world.
“Anything was OK,” she said.
- In her high school biology class, a student asked “Why do humans not
have bones in their outer ears?”. The teacher responded “I guess that’s
just the way God made us.”
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16
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- At her middle school’s Parent’s Night, her science teacher described a
project where students drew pictures of the creation of the world.
“Anything was OK,” she said.
- In her high school biology class, a student asked “Why do humans not
have bones in their outer ears?”. The teacher responded “I guess that’s
just the way God made us.” The principal said “That’s an OK answer.”
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17
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- Science is not understood.
- Science is not accepted.
- Science is not supported.
- Science is undercut by politicians.
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18
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- Science is taught in elementary and high schools as formulas and facts –
not as experimentation and inquiry.
- The scientific method is one more fact to be memorized.
- Occam’s Razor is ignored.
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19
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- Science is taught in elementary and high schools as formulas and facts –
not as experimentation and inquiry.
- The scientific method is one more fact to be memorized.
- Occam’s Razor is ignored. Lights in the sky are UFOs.
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20
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- Risk is inevitable part of life yet:
- From October to December 2001,
the number of car accident deaths nationwide climbed by more than 1,000
over the same period a year earlier because fears of terrorism on
airplanes had increased car travel.
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21
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- Risk is inevitable part of life yet:
- The “morning after pill” Plan B
was not approved by the FDA because it was claimed (by FDA
administrators) the manufacturer had not proven it was safe for 16 year
olds to buy over the counter.
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22
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- Risk is inevitable part of life yet:
- The “morning after pill” Plan B
was not approved by the FDA because it was claimed (by FDA
administrators) the manufacturer had not proven it was safe for 16 year
olds to buy over the counter.
- What was not considered was the alternative risk of pregnancy for 16
year olds.
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23
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- Consider these beliefs found by the Gallup Organization in a survey of
1003 American adults from March 6 to March 8, 2005
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24
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25
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26
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27
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28
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29
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30
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31
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32
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- You may find those beliefs harmless
- (although I don’t), but how about this?
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33
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- I'm going to read you a list of environmental problems. As I read each
one, please tell me if you personally worry about this problem a great
deal, a fair amount, only a little, or not at all. How much do you
personally worry about...Damage to the earth's ozone layer?
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34
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35
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36
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37
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- Which of the following do you believe about how human beings came to be?
Human beings evolved from earlier species. Human beings were created
directly by God. Human beings are so complex that they required a
powerful force or intelligent being to help create them.
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38
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39
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40
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- Regardless of what you may personally believe, which of these do you
believe should be taught in public schools?
- Evolution only,
- Creationism only,
- Intelligent design only,
- All three.
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41
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42
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43
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44
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45
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- NASA's aeronautics cuts still looming
- Unless the House fights the Senate bill, the Hampton center could lose a
quarter of its workforce.
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46
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47
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48
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49
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50
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51
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- Basic research funding (category 6.1) falls 4%.
- DARPA (Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency) would have an overall
4.2% increase
- But
- DARPA funding for university Information Technology research has fallen
from $214M in 2001 to $123M in 2004 –
a 43% loss.
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52
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53
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54
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- Feds Drop Boreal Toad From Protected List
- Global sea levels could rise 30 cm by 2100- study
- House to Act on Endangered Species Law
- Warming causes record Arctic ice melt: U.S. report
- US policy hinders global space cooperation -report
- Bush set to shun G8 allies on global warming
- Senate Rejects Greenhouse Gas Limits
- How high-pressure politics threatens action on climate
- ACLU Says Bush Is Restricting Science
- Experts question medical ethics at Guantanamo
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55
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56
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57
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- Deleting Scientific Advice on Endangered Salmon: Scientists asked to
remove science-based recommendations from an official report
- Endangered Species: Florida Panther, Bull Trout, Trumpeter Swans:
Research at the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service is distorted and
suppressed
- Mountaintop Removal Mining: Administration officials intentionally
disregard extensive scientific study on mountaintop removal in
Appalachia
- Climate Change: Administration officials undermined science behind
climate change by suppressing reports and publicly misrepresenting
scientific consensus
- Mercury Emissions: White House suppressed information about the impact
of mercury on public health
- Multiple Air Pollutants: The Environmental Protection Agency withheld an
analysis showing the benefits of a bipartisan alternative to President
Bush's Clear Skies Act
- The Endangered Species Act: Administration officials are manipulating
the scientific underpinnings of the policy making process
- Forest Management: A "review team" primarily composed of
non-scientists overruled a science-based plan for managing old-growth
forest habitat and reducing fire risk
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58
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- Emergency Contraception: FDA appointees overruled staff
scientists and two independent advisory panels to deny access to
emergency contraception
- Abstinence-only Education: The Administration has obscured
scientific evaluation of abstinence-only education programs and
pressured scientists to promote abstinence.
- HIV/AIDS Education: The CDC was ordered to change its website to raise
scientifically questionable doubt about the effectiveness of condoms in
preventing the spread of HIV/AIDS.
- Airborne Bacteria: A microbiologist was prohibited at least 11 times
from publishing research on airborne bacteria originating from farm
wastes.
- Breast Cancer: Information suggesting a link between abortion and breast
cancer was posted on a National Cancer Institute website despite
objections from staff scientists.
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59
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- Fogarty International Center Advisory Board: Qualified scientists,
including a Nobel Laureate, were rejected after being subjected to
political litmus tests.
- President's Council on Bioethics: Two leading scientists were dismissed
from the panel because of dissenting opinions on the ethics of
biomedical research.
- Arms Control Panel: A scientific committee that advised the State
Department on matters of arms control was dismissed and never
reappointed.
- Army Science Board: An engineer was rejected from a panel because of a
contribution to John McCain's 2000 presidential bid.
- National Nuclear Security Administration Panel: A committee set up to
advise the administration on scientific issues regarding the maintenance
nation's nuclear weapons stockpile and the design and testing of new
nuclear warheads was dismissed.
- NIH: Drug Abuse Panel: Potential panel members were asked if they voted
for President Bush.
- Lead Poisoning Prevention Panel: Staff-recommended scientists are
rejected from a panel considering acceptable levels of lead in drinking
water and replaced by appointees with financial ties to the lead
industry.
- Workplace Safety Panel: Well-qualified scientists were rejected from a
panel that evaluates grants for workplace injuries because of their
support for a workplace ergonomics standard.
- Reproductive Health Advisory Committee: An underqualified nominee was
suggested as chair of an FDA committee on reproductive health despite
scant credentials and highly partisan political views.
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60
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- These are science questions:
- Is this drug safe?
- Is this species endangered?
- Is this chemical toxic?
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61
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- These are science questions:
- Is this drug safe?
- Is this species endangered?
- Is this chemical toxic?
- These are public policy questions:
- Will the use of this drug offend a constituency?
- Should we develop this land?
- Should we force this plant to clean up?
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62
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- These are science questions:
- Is this drug safe?
- Is this species endangered?
- Is this chemical toxic?
- These are public policy questions:
- Will the use of this drug offend a constituency?
- Should we develop this land?
- Should we force this plant to clean up?
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63
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- Stop treating anti-scientists as retarded
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64
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- Stop treating anti-scientists as retarded
- Confront them
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65
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- Explain to creationists that far more science than evolutionary biology
must be rejected if a literal interpretation of the bible is accepted:
- Astronomy – few stars are within 6,000 light years of earth
- Biology – how long would it have taken Noah to collect every species?
- Physics – could a ship big enough to hold every species be constructed
from wood?
- Chemistry – what’s the error with carbon dating?
- Geology – can all these rocks be so young?
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66
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- Ask proponents of intelligent design:
- Who designed the designer?
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67
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- Ask proponents of intelligent design:
- Who designed the designer?
- Either they fall into a cyclical logical fallacy
- Or
- They have to rely upon a god (which is what they claim the theory of
intelligent design avoids)
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68
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- In education:
- Speak to teachers and administrators when anti-science is practiced,
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69
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- In education:
- Speak to teachers and administrators when anti-science is practiced,
- Get the PTAs to help,
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70
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- In education:
- Speak to teachers and administrators when anti-science is practiced,
- Get the PTAs to help,
- Run for school boards.
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71
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- As citizen scientists:
- Write letters to newspapers calling anti-science to their attention,
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72
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- As citizen scientists:
- Write letters to newspapers calling anti-science to their attention,
- Establish relationships with reporters,
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73
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- As citizen scientists:
- Write letters to newspapers calling anti-science to their attention,
- Establish relationships with reporters,
- Appear on TV interview shows,
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74
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- As citizen scientists:
- Write letters to newspapers calling anti-science to their attention,
- Establish relationships with reporters,
- Appear on TV interview shows,
- Join AAAS and the Union of Concerned Scientists, and
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75
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- As citizen scientists:
- Write letters to newspapers calling anti-science to their attention,
- Establish relationships with reporters,
- Appear on TV interview shows,
- Join AAAS and the Union of Concerned Scientists,
- Get off our butts – our livelihood is at stake.
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Notes
